Top rated Runners At Cheltenham have a very poor record in handicaps in November unless..........
OK, so this is not a brand new discovery, but in some cases, it is quite worth looking at top-rated runners in handicaps. At the Open meeting at Cheltenham, this is not the case. here follow the numbers
How often do top-rated runners win at Cheltenham?
I took a look at all top rated runners at the November meeting to see how their respective chances have fared over the years, and whilst at first glance, looking at only 4 and 5 years old, amounting to 70 runners since 1997 providing 11winnersr for a level stakes profit of €57.76 to €1 stakes, that profit is provided by the single biggest priced winner at just over 55.00. The 15% strike rate is not bad, but with that single exception, and the last 5 seasons providing no winners from 24 qualifiers, it is the beginning of a story that will become even more familiar when we look at older runners, in so much as the youngsters fare pretty well!!
What about the older horses?
If we switch the view to runners aged 6 and above, things become even bleaker
The strike rate drops to just over 5% winners to runners and just 10 winners from 173 runners. More than twice the chances, and even less victorious representatives!
So bad are they in fact that if you had backed every runner aged 6 or over that was officially top rated in a race at the November meeting since 1997 for €1, you would be exactly €100.76 out of pocket.
Safe to say - Avoid top rated handicap runners at Cheltenham this weekend
This information is not going to find you more winners this coming weekend, but it will certainly help you avoid some losers!!
Have a great weekend and leave your comments on who you will be backing at Cheltenham