The Galway Plate is the biggest Chase run over the 7 days of the Galway festival and over the years has been won by some very good horses, the distance of The Galway Plate is 2m 6 & 1/2 furlongs and 14 fences are due to be jumped.

Junction Fourteen comes out top of the trends, Click to add to your Paddy Power betslip


In 2015, the winner of this race picked up over €130,000 and the toal prize fund was over €220,000.

I have looked at the last 10 runnings of the race to see if any trends stand out as a clue to picking the potential winner.
 
The trends i have looked at for this race are Age, Weight, Official Rating, Last Time Out, Last Run, Year Runs & Distance.

Each horse will score the points for that trend, and the horse/s with the most points will be the selections for the race.

Early Decs - 
1232-F    Road To Riches(91)      9    11-10    Noel Meade 162
6P24-1    Alelchi Inois(56)      8    11-1    W P Mullins 153
5642/6d    The Tullow Tank(18)    8    11-1    Alan Fleming 153
3-5112    Clarcam(25)    6    11-0    Gordon Elliott 152
031-2    Sadler´s Risk(56)    8    11-0    Henry De Bromhead 152
1740-7    Shanahan´s Turn(40)      8    10-13    Henry De Bromhead 151
1611-2    Devils Bride(56)      9    10-12    W P Mullins 150
7-1337    Bright New Dawn(15)    9    10-11    Gordon Elliott 149
5/400-    Three Kingdoms(32F)    7    10-11    D K Weld 149
1151-    Junction Fourteen(95)      7    10-10    Emma Lavelle 148
F-435P    First Lieutenant(12)    11    10-9    M F Morris 147
5PF-52    Shantou Flyer(40)      6    10-9    Colin Bowe 147
35U6-F    Ballycasey(56)      9    10-7    W P Mullins 145
3312-5    Lord Scoundrel(89)      7    10-7    Gordon Elliott 145
8/46P-    Home Farm(109)      9    10-6    Henry De Bromhead 144
223U-4    Sizing Platinum(56)      8    10-5    Henry De Bromhead 143
0-P114    Tiger Roll(15)    6    10-0    Gordon Elliott 138
6269-9    It´s A Gimme(31)    9    9-13    Jonjo O´Neill 137
9P52-9    Ravished(12)      8    9-11    M F Morris 135
2133-5    Shadow Catcher(19)    8    9-11    Gordon Elliott 135
79-4P1    The King Of Brega(24)      9    9-11    Henry De Bromhead 135
U0U-22    Carriganog(12)      7    9-10    Joseph Patrick O´Brien 134
2P-121    King Leon(10)      7    9-10    Joseph Patrick O´Brien 134
2270-0    Killer Crow(91)    7    9-9    Gordon Elliott 133
433-39    Yes Tom(40)    11    9-9    S R B Crawford 133
00-217    Cantlow(12)    11    9-8    E Bolger 132
U48-48    Realt Mor(40)    11    9-8    Gordon Elliott 132
46P9-P    Balnaslow(12)      9    9-7    Gordon Elliott 131
1100P-    Rossvoss(11F)      8    9-7    T M Walsh 131
PFU-1P    Unic De Bersy(12)      8    9-6    Gordon Elliott 130
3-5614    Aranhill Chief(24)      9    9-5    S J Mahon 129
2F4-0P    Horendus Hulabaloo(72)     7    9-4    M F Morris 128
6440-4    Wrath Of Titans(88)      7    9-0    Gordon Elliott 124
0-P246    Knockanarrigan(12)    8    8-12    Ms Sandra Hughes 122
0P-P3P    Nickname Exit(12)      6    8-8    Gordon Elliott 118
1U6-33    Altiepix(52)      6    8-7    Gordon Elliott 117
 

Age

8 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 & 8

Qualifiers (8 Points) = Alelchi Inois, The Tullow Tank, Clarcam, Sadler´s Risk, Shanahan´s Turn, Three Kingdoms, Junction Fourteen, Shantou Flyer, Lord Scoundrel, Sizing Platinum, Tiger Roll, Ravished, Shadow Catcher, Carriganog, King Leon, Killer Crow, Rossvoss, Unic De Bersy, Horendus Hulabaloo, Wrath Of Titans, Knockanarrigan, Nickname Exit & Altiepix
 

Weight

All of the last 10 winners carried under 11-00

Qualifiers (10 Points) = Shanahan´s Turn, Devils Bride, Bright New Dawn, Three Kingdoms, Junction Fourteen, First Lieutenant, Shantou Flyer, Ballycasey, Lord Scoundrel, Home Farm, Sizing Platinum, Tiger Roll, It´s A Gimme, Ravished, Shadow Catcher, The King Of Brega, Carriganog, King Leon, Killer Crow, Yes Tom, Cantlow, Realt Mor, Balnaslow, Rossvoss, Unic De Bersy, Aranhill Chief, Horendus Hulabaloo, Wrath Of Titans, Knockanarrigan, Nickname Exit & Altiepix
 

Official Rating

9 of the last 10 winners were rated 143 or less

Qualifiers (9 Points) = Sizing Platinum, Tiger Roll, It´s A Gimme, Ravished, Shadow Catcher, The King Of Brega, Carriganog, King Leon, Killer Crow, Yes Tom, Cantlow, Realt Mor, Balnaslow, Rossvoss, Unic De Bersy, Aranhill Chief, Horendus Hulabaloo, Wrath Of Titans, Knockanarrigan, Nickname Exit & Altiepix
 
 

Last Time Out

8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start

Qualifiers(8 Points) = Road To Riches, Alelchi Inois, Clarcam, Sadler´s Risk, Devils Bride, Junction Fourteen, Shantou Flyer, The King Of Brega, Carriganog, King Leon, Unic De Bersy, Nickname Exit & Altiepix

Last Run

7 of the last 10 winners came here with at least a 2 month rest

Qualfiers(7 Points) = Road To Riches, Junction Fourteen, Lord Scoundrel, Home Farm, Killer Crow, Horendus Hulabaloo & Wrath Of Titans
 

Year Runs

8 of the last 10 winners had run between 2 & 4 times that year

Qualifiers (8 Points) = Road To Riches, Shanahan´s Turn, Devils Bride, Three Kingdoms, Junction Fourteen, Shantou Flyer, Home Farm, Sizing Platinum, It´s A Gimme, Ravished, Shadow Catcher, The King Of Brega, Carriganog, King Leon, Killer Crow, Realt Mor, Balnaslow, Rossvoss, Aranhill Chief, Horendus Hulabaloo, Wrath Of Titans & Knockanarrigan
 

Distance

8 of the last 10 winners had previously won over further than 2m 4f
 
Qualifiers (8 Points) = Road To Riches, Alelchi Inois, The Tullow Tank, Clarcam, Sadler´s Risk, Shanahan´s Turn, Devils Bride, Junction Fourteen, First Lieutenant, Shantou Flyer, Ballycasey, Home Farm, It´s A Gimme, Ravished, The King Of Brega, Carriganog, King Leon, Yes Tom, Cantlow, Balnaslow, Rossvoss, Unic De Bersy, Aranhill Chief, Horendus Hulabaloo, Wrath Of Titans, Knockanarrigan, Nickname Exit & Altiepix

Trend Results


51    x    Carriganog
51    x    King Leon

50    x    Horendus Hulabaloo
50    x    Wrath Of Titans

49    x    Junction Fourteen

43    x    Ravished
43    x    The King Of Brega
43    x    Rossvoss
43    x    Unic De Bersy
43    x    Knockanarrigan
43    x    Nickname Exit
43    x    Altiepix

42    x    Shantou Flyer
42    x    Killer Crow

35    x    Sizing Platinum
35    x    It´s A Gimme
35    x    Shadow Catcher
35    x    Balnaslow
35    x    Aranhill Chief

34    x    Devils Bride

33    x    Home Farm

31    x    Road To Riches

27    x    Tiger Roll
27    x    Yes Tom
27    x    Cantlow
27    x    Realt Mor

26    x    Shanahan´s Turn
26    x    Three Kingdoms

25    x    Lord Scoundrel

24    x    Alelchi Inois
24    x    Clarcam
24    x    Sadler´s Risk

18    x    First Leiutenant
18    x    Ballycasey

16    x    The Tullow Tank

10    x    Bright New Dawn

Summary


Carriganog & King Leon top score on 51 points and both horses only fail on 1 trend, they both failed on the last run trend

Should Road To Riches not run, then the weights will change, which will change the score on a few horses, i will update if this happens

Update at overnight stage


22 horses go to post, this is the scoring of those 22 horses - 

49    x    Junction Fourteen

43    x    Ravished
43    x    The King Of Brega

42    x    Shantou Flyer
42    x    Killer Crow

35    x    Sizing Platinum
35    x    Shadow Catcher
35    x    It´s A Gimme

34    x    Devils Bride

33    x    Home Farm

31    x    Road To Riches

27    x    Yes Tom
27    x    Cantlow

26    x    Shanahan´s Turn
26    x    Three Kingdoms

25    x    Lord Scoundrel

24    x    Alelchi Inois
24    x    Clarcam

18    x    First Leiutenant
18    x    Ballycasey

16    x    The Tullow Tank

10    x    Bright New Dawn


Junction Fourteen is the top scoring horse from the runners and is the selection for the race. Get odds of 10/1 on This selection with Paddy Power here