John Tips History

If you asked me 4 weeks ago to look at this I would say 13+ but Edinburgh have not been great and Zebre are on a real high with a win in SA and then beating Ulster in Italy. Treviso have won in Edinburgh this year but I think this is a step too far for the italians and we will see a narrow Edinburgh win

I am not sure we are going to see the high scoring of Zebre in the last few weeks tonight in Scotland. Edinburgh have scored over 20 pts just once this year and a narrow victory is on the cards tonight in a low scoring affair

Ulster after the disappointment of losing in Italy will want to get back to winning ways. Connacht haven't won in Ulster in the last 10 and I cna't see it changin

Ulster were not at the races last week and will want to make amends however the last 3 have all been within the 13 points between the pair in Belfast and I fancy them getting ahead and then taking the foot off the pedal

7 of the last 8 have been unders between the pair in Belfast and not scoring particularly heavily it should stay unders in what could be a tight match.

Swish is a horse I have been tracking the progress of for a little while after coming across in early May to Bath for a listed event. Lto in a valuable race at the Curragh it was just pushed across the course when starting its run but recovered well to finish 5th to the 2 English raiders... it has won both its starts at Dundalk and 16s represents great value in a race against its own sex.

I don't see how this ends up with anything else but a 13+ win for the dragons.. the Hcp line is at 21 and that looks generous so the 1.55 looks a steal. The dragons are not the most competitive team but if you are seeing Zebre put 40 points on you in South Africa there is not much hope

Im going to take a little punt on unders here. the weather is due in this afternoon and carrying on through the evening. It should be an easy win for the dragons but the weather means it will have to be kept tighter than it could be.

110 could be a fantastic rating for its handicap debut ..It had nearly 2 years off course and has just the 3 runs since its return. Its now qualified after a 2m4f 3rd to horses that are pretty decent mid 130s at least and if taking to the 3m+ (it won a PTP over 3m) then it will be in with a chance.

Im a bit lost here as to why Ballycasey is sucha big price. It is most efffective over 2m4 and on the soft heavy ground. I understand that Balko Des Flos is the young pretender but think its better suited to further as is Shaneshill who does find winning hard. for me this is a great price.

Ballyegan Hero is my selection here. It is up 7lbs for the Galway victory but that race obviously has good form from it. Mine Now finished 2nd that day and 2nd nto but is only 1lb better now than that race and looks like it needs about 2f to get going after the last. at double the price Ballyegan Hero is much the better value. Ben Button is improving but for me just has a bit too much weight now v a decent field.

Zebre will be very heartened by their trip to SA with some good high scoring performances winning one and scoring 39 in the other. The italian clubs always pose more problems at home and I think this is a good price for Zebre to stay close considering they lost by more than 12 on just 4 occasions last year

Zebre have scored a load of points in SA and that may have suited their rugby. If they harbour hopes of winning here or getting a point they need to keep this a lt tighter and due to this fact I think they won't surpass 50 points.. even playing a freer style of Rugby last year they only surpassed 50 on 4 occasions.

In reality with a lot of stars back Munster should put a lot of points on Cardiff but the H2H suggests this is someitmes a tight game .. the internationals are back but this is really a warm up for the start of the H Cup and I don't expect to see fireworks.

I'm not expecting a cricket score here with so many changes (despite them being the internationals) for Munster. It will be a gentle re introduction with H Cup 2 weeks away and surely the subs will be on early.

I can't let this go even at this price. Stoute has never had a runner at Dundalk and his rare foray's to Ireland usually mean the horse has a good chance. there is no denying Abingdon is a classy beast and I can't see anything beating it today

Treviso have been much improved over the last 2 weeks but against weak opposition. Tonight they travel to Glasgow who have made 9 changes to the side and may just struggle for a bit of fluency. i fancy a comfortable win for Glasgow but not a high scoring match

Leinster look very strong tonight with Sexton , McGrath O Brien and Furlong all playing . Edinburgh have been shockingly poor and I can't see how they can stay within 12 tonight

I don't see Leinster being threatened here but I don't see Edinburgh scoring many points either so its going to be difficult to get over 48 points here.

Connacht have not been good and apart from v the Southern kings have failed to really get any sort of points so we can perhaps see this as a Scarlets need 35 points to beat the handicap .. i don't see that and am happy to go unders.